It’s possible that there have been fewer deaths since then because those with stronger immune systems who weathered the first wave are likely to also survive the second, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.

It’s also hard to compare the waves, he said, because “so much is different,” including what we’ve learned about the virus and how to treat it.

But, he noted, there’s still a chance the second wave will prove just as deadly.

“Either a long-term-care home is somehow able to keep COVID out, or it gets in — and then it wreaks havoc,” Furness said. “If more long-term-care homes end up getting outbreaks, then we’re going to see those numbers pop right back up.”

Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist with the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, agreed.

“I think over the coming weeks, we should expect more deaths, given how many cases are occurring right now, in long-term-care homes,” she said.

In its Dec. 31 data update, the government reported 1,186 active cases among residents and an additional 1,050 in long-term-care workers. The cumulative number of cases in long-term care breaks down fairly equally between the first and second waves.

Vaccinations could help mitigate the situation before it becomes too dire, all three experts said, noting that the province needs to move much faster to immunize patients as well as health-care workers.

“It would take time for vaccines to provide protection amongst people who have been vaccinated, but it’s a tool we have now that we didn’t have in the first wave,” Tuite said.

Last week, the executive director of the Ontario Health Coalition called for the military to once again be sent into this province’s long-term-care homes.

A testing backlog and poor enforcement have contributed to an increase of infections and deaths in long-term-care homes, said Natalie Mehra.

The province has to date insisted it is doing all it can to fight back COVID-19’s second wave.

In November, the government promised to establish a new “gold” standard for care homes in the province by 2024, ensuring residents four hours of care per day. Weeks later it issued a directive stipulating those working or volunteering in care homes must take regular COVID tests.

Critics say these measures don’t go far enough, calling current staffing levels a crisis. Earlier in December, the coalition released a survey of 88 staff in dozens of long-term-care homes experiencing outbreaks. Sixty-four per cent of those surveyed said they did not have adequate staffing.

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