While London area’s two largest school boards so far have seen only two cases of COVID-19 transmission from person to person in schools, more than 40 students or staff have acquired the virus under other circumstances, including while learning at home, Mackie said.

“Schools do appear to be the safe place to be in this region,” he said.

“(But) that is certainly not the case across the province. There are, I believe, over 230 outbreaks in schools in the Toronto area alone. An outbreak being defined as transmission within a school. We’re just not seeing that here.”

It all comes down to how the virus spreads, Mackie said: “In general, schools do have an advantage, that it seems young people are less likely to transmit the virus.”

Mark Fisher, Director of Education and CEO of Thames Valley District School Board sits at a classroom desk at Eagle Heights public school. (Derek Ruttan/The London Free Press)

NOT SO FAST: ANOTHER VIEW

While Mackie and Fisher tout school safety, at least in this region, not everyone is on board with the idea that schools are relatively safe from COVID-19.

Ryan Imgrund, a York Region biostatistician and high school science teacher who’s been running COVID risk assessments across Ontario, stands firm in his view that “schools are not an indicator of community transmission (of COVID-19), but are . . . driving transmission.”

He points to last month’s nasty outbreak at Windsor’s Frank W. Begley elementary school, which remains closed after several dozen pupils and staff were infected. At the time, Windsor was not considered a hot spot for virus spread.

“Whether it be at Begley in Windsor, where they had very few community cases and they found a boatload of cases (in school), or . . . Toronto, where cases were high and they found an even higher number of school cases, schools are definitely driving transmission.” Imgrund argues.

SCHOOL OUTBREAKS: THE LOWDOWN

Nine months into the pandemic, grim headlines have taught us all a thing or two about outbreaks:

So far, the two major London-area boards have had one outbreak each: The Thames Valley board’s came this fall at London’s Sir Arthur Currie elementary school; the Catholic board’s this week, with two linked cases in pupils at London’s St. Marguerite d’Youville elementary.

“We have 161 schools, (more than) 70,000 students and 10,000 staff and only one transmission,” Fisher said, referring to the lone outbreak. “This is better than our best-case scenario.”

At the Catholic board, they’ve seen 21 confirmed cases at 10 schools, including the lone outbreak.

“The bad news is, it was an outbreak,” said education director Linda Staudt. “The good news is, it was only two students in the same class and that class was already self-isolating at home.”

THE PRECAUTIONS

For all the worry and planning before the school year’s delayed start in September, including whether young children would wear masks, school safeguards are working, Fisher said.

“The kids are wearing masks, washing their hands, our staff are ensuring physical distancing is being followed — we are and have been following all those health and safety protocols,” he said, insisting that sticking to the rules has been “the key to the fact we have only had one transmission.”

THE OUTLOOK: REASON FOR WORRY

In the big picture, COVID numbers for Ontario schools — the nation’s largest school system — don’t look bad at all. According to the Education Ministry, about one one-hundredth of a per cent of students and staff have an active case of COVID-19. About three-quarters of the province’s high schools and nearly nine out of 10 elementary schools have no active cases at all. But provincewide, school cases have spiked in recent weeks amid the pandemic’s second wave.

“In the first three weeks of November, the increase (of COVID-19) in the general population was 23 per cent, but in schools, the increase was 87 per cent,” said Natalie Mehra, head of the Ontario Health Coalition, a public health-care advocacy group.

“That’s way, way above what the general increase in the population is,” said Mehra, who wonders if Ontario has a firm grip on COVID-19 transmission rates.

“In schools, kids are sharing bathrooms, lunches, buses. There are all kinds of potential places for transmission,” she said. “So there is a huge difference in the increase in the number of cases and number of outbreaks in schools. That raises red flags.”

Kiera Bumbacco, a grade nine student at St. Andre Bessette high school, wears a mask and a face shield while attending in-school classes to ward off COVID-19. (Submitted photo)

LESSONS TO DRAW ON

In places where COVID-19 cases have been seen in numbers, Mackie said a common denominator is people letting their guard down, such as not wearing a mask or eating in close proximity to others.

“COVID-19 does not go on breaks,” he said. “If you give it a chance, it will spread.”

At the Catholic board, Staudt said she she believes being diligent about the rules, the tried-and-true stuff such as masking and hand-washing, is paying off. So are grouping pupils and homeroom teachers in cohorts to limit contact with others, and forming classes into bubbles sharing doors, halls and washrooms.

“We are together five days a week, at least 300 minutes a day,” she said. “With those numbers, I would call it a success. The cohorting and bubbling are working well.”

Bill Tucker, a former Thames Valley education director who now teaches at Western University, said he was concerned about the rapidly changing back-to-school landscape in September, but has been “impressed” both by how safety-conscious schools have been and their COVID-19 communication.

“This is speaking from a grandparent’s perspective, with grandchildren in two different school systems,” he said. “A parent whose many family members work in the school system.”

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